Kind of long, but good info for early testers like ME!!!

Method:
We considered a batch of the most recent charts analyzed on the FertilityFriend.com web site. We considered 93,184 recent charts for which the woman's averages from past cycles were available (most notably the average luteal phase length). For each chart considered we took note of the ovulation day, the first positive pregnancy test, the first negative pregnancy test and the average luteal phase length. From the ovulation day and the average luteal phase length we were able to calculate the day of the expected menstrual period. This latter parameter is extremely important to understand the results. Results:

Average Day Past Ovulation (DPO) for the first positive pregnancy test: 13.6 DPO
Average DPO for the first "false" negative test result: 10.3 DPO
Percentage of pregnancy charts with a positive test at 10 DPO: 10%
Percentage of pregnancy charts which show negative results before a positive result: 17%
Average time between the expected period and the first positive pregnancy test: 0.5 days before the expected period.
Percentage of negative test results taken three days or more before the expected period day on non pregnant charts: 40.7% The graphs below represent the distribution of positive tests with respect to the day of the expected period, where 0 represents the day of the expected period:
Discussion:
Our data do not indicate the type of pregnancy test used (sensitivity is indeed an important parameter although most people tend to use the most sensitive tests) and a very small number of the results recorded as positive pregnancy tests may be actually the results of blood tests. Nonetheless, the results of our findings lead to very interesting conclusions. As one could have expected, testing too early greatly increases your chances of a "false" negative. The average DPO at which people start testing (around 10 DPO) is probably related to some very optimistic advice and the strong desire to learn of positive results early. It is true that pregnancy tests can turn positive early (blood tests especially), however, it is rare with HPTs and is not something that should be relied upon within the emotional context of the trying to conceive journey. Further, we suspect that the frequency of early "false" negatives is actually higher than the 17% reported as many negative results go unreported. The most interesting result is the nearly perfect match between the average first positive test result day and the day of the expected period. The average day to get a positive test is at 13.6 DPO and the average luteal phase length is 14 days (verified on our sample as well). This result can also be the consequence of the instructions given for testing, however, the distribution shows clearly that the maximum probability is almost exactly on the day the period is expected. One remarkable figure in these statistics is the percentage of negative test results taken before the expected period day on non pregnant charts. This figure represents the proportion of women who tested too early and were not pregnant. In other words, this is the proportion of tests which may have been avoided. The number is high but probably underestimated still as we could expect very early negative tests to stay unreported because of the negative connotation of the test. In conclusion, we certainly cannot stress enough the need to wait for a reasonable test date before spending your emotional (and financial) capital on early tests and lab procedures. This is certainly easier said than done. As with most sensitive emotional decisions, it is really up to you to decide what you can withstand. It is really a matter of weighing your desire to know early versus the disappointment, anxiety, and ambiguity that can be associated with seeing negative, or potentially "false" negative results. Keeping in mind that even cycles with perfectly timed intercourse often do not result in pregnancy, it is certainly something where understanding of the situation plays a great role. The Fertility Friend charting system proposes you a test date in full agreement with the results described above. We recommend as much as possible to actually wait until the test date.

that's great info. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you!

Well damnit. That means I can't test on Mother's Day  

Thanks for the info though!

Quoting Sarah078:“ that's great info. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you!”

Thanks! I tested today at 10 dpo roughly and got a bfn. So when I read the article it gave me hope  . I got a bfp at what I thought was 10 dpo with the last one, but looking back at the calender it was 12 dpo  . So, I was dissapointed this a.m. but there is hope. I have also had kind of sharp-ish twinges, not cramps, in what would be near my uterus today. And I'm NOT imaging it ha ha, because there are times where I'm like...oooo that hurt a little ha ha. My boobies hurt by this point last time though and I don't feel anything! I have 2 more dollar store tests and I'm going to go buy a couple more at wal-mart tonight...arrrrggg I hate donating my money to those test makers, but it will be worth it for a BFP!!!!

Quoting Jenn`GoneWild:“ Well damnit. That means I can't test on Mother's Day   Thanks for the info though!”

Well you CAN, but it says in the article to not get your hopes up too high. I just posted above ^ that I thought it was 10 dpo when I tested the first time, but when I looked at the calendar it was 12 dpo...so there is still a possibility! I've been having sharp little pains all day!! Could it be possible? I hate this!

Quoting babyworkman:“ Well you CAN, but it says in the article to not get your hopes up too high. I just posted above ^ that ... [snip!] ... was 12 dpo...so there is still a possibility! I've been having sharp little pains all day!! Could it be possible? I hate this!”

Haha, trust me, I know how you feel! Talk about excruciating! Easiest way to torture a woman: make her wait to POAS.

Quoting Jenn`GoneWild:“ Haha, trust me, I know how you feel! Talk about excruciating! Easiest way to torture a woman: make her wait to POAS.”

For sure! Gol I'm getting obsessed! Ha ha, it's fun to see that I'm not the only one though  ...I thought I was the only one who had IPS, bought TONS of pg tests, and observed every little detail of how I'm feeling lol! The joys of TTC...sigh

Quoting babyworkman:“ For sure! Gol I'm getting obsessed! Ha ha, it's fun to see that I'm not the only one though  ...I thought ... [snip!] ... only one who had IPS, bought TONS of pg tests, and observed every little detail of how I'm feeling lol! The joys of TTC...sigh”

Gosh, I know! I'm trying not to think about it because I don't want it to be IPS, but it's so hard!! I'm still so far away from AF too...stupid charts!

this is awesome information, thanks for sharing

Quoting Jenn`GoneWild:“ Gosh, I know! I'm trying not to think about it because I don't want it to be IPS, but it's so hard!! I'm still so far away from AF too...stupid charts!”

Me too, it really stinks! So, I just got back from Wal-Mart and bought a pack of 2 First Response. It was $10.50 for 2. Man, I am soooo tempted to test tonight...even though I JUST posted this info. haha! I am such a poas addict!! Supposedly First Response has been said to detect an hcg level of 12.5. A lot of articles I've read have said to wait, but it's soooo hard! Ugh and double ugh!

Quoting Mrs. Rachael:“ this is awesome information, thanks for sharing”

You bet, it kind of gives you hope if you get a BFN  

webmd Ovulation calendar said the earliest possible BFP is 2 days before expected AF so that is quite close to what that chart says. that is why I am going to try to wait until Tues to test.

See, now I'm on the fence about this. AF is expected on the 13th since I ovulated on Tuesday (or at least that's what the doctor says). That would make Mother's Day 12 DPO and 2 days before AF...

Screw it! I'm going to test on Mother's Day because I'm an addict and if I don't get AF, I'll test again! I need to buy hpts in bulk...

Quoting Jenn`GoneWild:“ See, now I'm on the fence about this. AF is expected on the 13th since I ovulated on Tuesday (or at least ... [snip!] ... I'm going to test on Mother's Day because I'm an addict and if I don't get AF, I'll test again! I need to buy hpts in bulk...”

Screw it like you said, Test on Mother's Day!!!!!! If you get a BFP you will be sooo ecstatic. If you don't then you can still have hope to get it in a couple of days.

Quoting LOOPY4971:“ Screw it like you said, Test on Mother's Day!!!!!! If you get a BFP you will be sooo ecstatic. If you don't then you can still have hope to get it in a couple of days.”

Exactly my thoughts! What I find funny though is POAS.com shows that the "off-brand" hpts (WalMart, Target, Dollar Tree brands) are actually more acurrate and reliable than others...I think I'm going to stock up!